When the national weather service states scattered thunder showers or islolated thunder storms, what does that mean exactly? I hate weather forecasters. They are way too vague.[mad]
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First, understand that weather cannot ever be forecast exactly. A "forecast" is a "best guess." Its not the forecaster's fault. Besides, most are computer generated based on more data than you could ever imagine. Forecasts are "vague" because most people would not take the time to read a detailed forecast, or be able to understand it. If you look on the NWS site, there are links to very detailed forecasts. Pages and pages of narrative about each forecast. If you want an exact prediction of the weather where you are in two or three sentences, dream on.
Scattered showers means they are around here and there. Isolated showers means they are just isolated (fewer than scattered). Look at the percentage chance of precip. A 20 percent chance of isolated showers means that rain will likely fall in 20 percent of the coverage area. That means 80 percent of the coverage area will NOT LIKELY have rain. When the so-called "weatherman" says there's a 40 percent chance of showers, that also means there's a 60 percent chance there will NOT be showers in any one location within the coverage area.
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I do understand the 40% stuff. I am currently looking at my plans for this weekend and the weather is driving me nuts. They say possible on one line and chance on another. I will continue to plan on going to the location I have been working on for the last three weeks and see what happens. Hopefully the weather will look a little better but I understand that it won't. Again this kind of stuff drives me nuts.[:p]Glad I am a railroader and not a weatherman.
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I just know if they say there is ANY chance of Thundershowers, they will hit the Uinta's[
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That is true. However I am looking at the boulder mountain right now. Looked deeper on the NOAA website and found some graphs that show more info that what their vague forecasts state. I can handle the info there. Showing 29% rain in morning and 50% by afternoon. Sounds like Uinta weather to me so good for backpackin.[cool]
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I can handle the rain, but those electric storms are like DOUBLED in the higher mountains or so it seems. You hear all the time on someone being fried.[
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I was at round lake in the uintas 11 years ago and had a thunderstorm hit. Nothing like hail and lightning at 13000 feet.[cool] At least I will only be at 10200 feet at this lake.
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Usually when we are hiking at high elevation and it says chance of thundershowers, by afternoon it would usually roll in. You can count on some rain, wind, lightening etc while you are there. Otherwise it isn't a "real" back country trip!!!! [:p][laugh][laugh]
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Current forecast for the area on Boulder Mountain where me and the family will be headed this weekend is 30% - 40% chance of showers. It keeps bouncing between isolated and chance.
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Just got back from the weekend there. The weather held out for us during the day and poured at nights worked out pretty well actually. Wish the fishing worked better of the 9 lakes we fished 6 gave us the skunk. Good thing the other lakes made up for it. Have a great trip down there.
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Just got back myself. Yes the rain was nasty at night but beautiful during the day. I will post a report Wed morning when I wake up. With pics of course.[cool]
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