Fishing Forum

2013 adult numbers just fell behind 2012 returns by 50%.

Email from IDFG-

Hi everybody.

I mentioned a couple weeks ago that the Idaho Department of Fish and Game Commission was scheduled to meet today to set the spring Chinook Salmon season and limits. Due to the low number of PIT-tagged fish that have passed over Bonneville Dam (as of April 21, 2013), we felt it was too early to project how many salmon would eventually make it to Idaho. As a result, this commission meeting was cancelled, and we will likely announce later this week when the commission will reconvene to set the salmon season and limits.

I have provided the table below so you all can view the data we are working with that the will be used to estimate the number of fish that are destined for Idaho and eventually be used to set the Chinook salmon season and limits. I want you to focus on the last two columns of this table which summarizes how many fish would be available for harvest based on whether the run has an average timing or late timing. For a Idaho spring Chinook run that has an average timing, about 30% of the run should have passed over Bonneville Dam by now. If this run has an average timing, you can see that it will be very weak and we won’t even have enough fish coming to Idaho to meet brood needs. For an Idaho spring Chinook run that has a late timing, less than 15% of the run should have passed over Bonneville Dam by now which means there will be a lot more to come. If the run is late, we are projecting there would be enough to have a fishery across the Clearwater Region. So, as you can see, it didn’t make much sense for the Commission to meet when there is so much uncertainty with how many fish will actually make it to Idaho.

I will let you all know when we re-schedule the Commission meeting as well as how the run is progressing. Let’s all hope that the run is late and there will be enough coming to Idaho to have a fishery.

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fell behind by 50 % in two days. sorry but I'm still rooting for the fish. I hope they are there and hope they come quick. the numbers are picking up steady every day. not every year is going to be the same. this could turn around in two to three days. but I'm not a biologist.
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It could turn around. I agree its possible. I really doubt its going to turn around enough for a good season. As of today theres been a few over 5000 adults pass Bonn. Last year same time (which was late) they had over 10,000 and they were getting LARGE daily passage for about a week which bumped our return up.

To me the one glimmer of hope in this is the Jack return is big so hopefully next year will be a good one..
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It is not looking very good at all. Ive been watching for over a month and paying attention to the fishing below Bonny. Doesnt look very promising. It can turn around, but we are going to need a gift from god to have good numbers. Idaho needs to beef up their role in management of salmon and steelhead returning to the state of Idaho. The columbia river fishery needs to be shut down until we have numbers over the dams. This take em' and then find out how many there are is not sound management. The Idaho commission will probably hold off on a decision again until the numbers show if they do.
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Ive been watching the cameras since i got home from work. seems like quite a few fish coming through this evening. anybody else watch the cameras at all today? just curious as to what you witnessed.
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Been checking them throughout the day. Was somewhat slow mid-day. Good bunch of them tonight. One thing you can not do is judge how many have come through by the cameras this I have learned. Better get to the 10s of thousands shortly to make up for the lag. The rivers are in prime condition if we just could get the fish here.
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I am not worried. Runs are later and later every year because the Washington and Oregon guys get to hammer the early part of the run every single season. ALL the early fish are upriver-bound, and if you remove a few thousand of those every single year, then guess what? There are going to be genetically fewer early fish every single season. They will come, just later. I love how we raise 'em up here and they get to hammer 'em down there before we ever get a shot. And they still complain about the seasons...
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2541 for yesterday. Number like this isnt going to get it done. just over 10,000 for the year. For the same time last year we saw just under 18000.

As far as the lower river guys. In this case(this year) they arent hammering them. Fishing below Bonn Dam is closed. The caught a few thousand fish. Not enough to slow the run. I think they have caught a couple hundred above Bonn so far.

There seems to be alot of jack this year which could bode well for us next year. 2013 jack count is 255 vs 259 for the 10 year ave. Last year with almost 2x the adults we only had 159.
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They caught just over 4000 fish that they got recorded, I would put it at probably 5000 of which nearly 70% were cnsidered to be upriver fish. Then you add the gill netters in there, dont know how many they took. Might not seem like a lot, but when the Idaho hatcheries dont know if they are going to have enough that a big screw up. They need to protect the early part of the run.

There are a lot of jacks, which I dont know if the predictions work or not using jack #s. At least we might be able to keep some jacks this year (maybe). Is the commioners meeting today? Would like to hear what their thoughts on this whole deal is.
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I think the commercial guys got around 1200 with 1000 being upriver fish. I dont dispute that they need to change how they manage the fishery. Its a joke on us how they set their seasons. Everyone knows it. But until ID gets some testicles and goes to court, changes to the way the lower river compact runs things isnt going to change. ID doesnt even have voting member status in making managment calls in the columbia.

Using the jacks to predict the following years runs hasnt been very accurate the last 10 years, BUT high jack counts still are way way better than low counts as far as indicators for the following years run go.

Saw some pretty good slugs of fish were going thru the windows this morn. Hopefully the daily counts will jump up pretty soon.
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As of april 22

[url "http://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/FS/13/13_04_23update3.pdf"]http://www.dfw.state.or.us/fish/OSCRP/CRM/FS/13/13_04_23update3.pdf[/url]
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We have surpassed the 2012 numbers what do you guys think? Are we going to have a season? Chrome_junky was wondering where you get the totals for PIT data. I can get the daily numbers but not the totals.
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Here you go. http://www.nwp.usace.army.mil/Missions/E.../Data.aspx
Make sure you do the running sum report
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I personally think we are going to get a season. 1 adult a day and a few jacks but im thinking they will only open the river in segments one at a time.
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I just talked to Fish and Game and they are meeting tomorrow to set a season. get ready boys and girls.
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I dont know why we wouldnt. WA/OR seem to have no issues with opening up the entire upper river.

While we did pass last years numbers, remember what the flows were like last year on the columbia i.e. super high. This held up the fish. If the numbers continue like they are its still not going to be much of a run. Look at the graph in the link below comparing long term, last year and this years runs. Youll see that in about a week last years run spiked pretty good which gave us the numbers. IF it does this this year it could be decent. If it doesnt it wont amount to much. So lets hope its the ice bergs tip.

Im expecting a 1 adult and small quota season. Prob allow several jacks to boot.

[url "http://www.fpc.org/adultsalmon/adultqueries/Adult_Query_Graph_Results2013.asp"]http://www.fpc.org/adultsalmon/adultqueries/Adult_Query_Graph_Results2013.asp[/url]
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Im just hoping the jack counts which are 3x the 10 year ave and are spiking , indicate that we have a silver lining for next years run and that its not an idicator that the runs peaking which high jack counts often do even on good years.

You can see on the graph below that the early jack spike is well .....early.

[url "http://www.fpc.org/adultsalmon/adultqueries/Adult_Query_Graph_Results2013.asp"]http://www.fpc.org/...raph_Results2013.asp[/url]
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I'm betting it will be a 1 adult, 10 fish for the season if we get anything.
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We'll know in a few hours.

Yesterdays fish counts took a dive which is the norm based on historic numbers. We REALLY need that big 10-20,000 fish day pulse better yet a couple of them
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I think it is kinda funny how the same people get on here every year when the salmon start running. You definately can tell who has salmon fever.

Hope you guys are praying to the salmon gods for a season. I think we might get one.
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