2011 spring chinook???

[phutch30]

So do you think the springer run into the columbia is just really late?

or

do you think the run was way over estimated?

Personally, I am hoping it is just really late, LOL
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[nativefisherman]

they have reports from pilots that go out and check. that there are big schools of fish just waiting for the run. they are just not doing it yet. A litle warm weather and boomb thousands of fish will be moving. i have a trip planned to go fish drano at the beginning of may some people say i will be to eary some people say if i wait another week i will miss it i have three back up rivers in washington i will drive to if it is a bust. but the idaho fish come early and they have almost met there quota on the coast for catching there early run salmon. all the numbers do not really matter for idaho. we only get so many of all those check smolt release's and your favorites fishing holes is the best thing to do. or move to washington like a i am.
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[chrome_junky]

I hope its like you say cause i am starting to get a little worried.
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[BorntoFish01]

I'm thinking [hoping] that a cold water thermal block is keeping them out in the salt. Give us a nice stretch of warm weather and/or warm rains and we could have an incredible push of fish into and up the Columbia River. That being said, supervisors should be prepared for a significant work slow down when that happens as employees either take vacation leave, call in sick, or spend hours of company time glued to the office/shop computer viewing the Bonneville Dam fish camera. []
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[IAintLying]

The problem when they hang for too long is when they do start moving they are hauling butt and tend to blow straight through. It has the makings of a short season.[frown]
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[phutch30]

native the airial surveys are not generally used with the spring chinook run due to horrible ocean conditions, they are used for the fall runs.

If as I hope it is late I have no problem with them screaming up the main river into ID.
1. It will get them to us on time
and
2. It will reduce the number caught in the lowere/mid river

A large % of the Columbia run is supported by upriver fish. Ive always felt the lower river got an disproportionately large level of the catch. So I wouldnt be too upset if they blew through to ID.

I dont think we are going to see the 98,000 chinook predicted though.
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[phutch30]

I was just reading due to the low returns so far that they estimate that sea lions have eaten 40% of the run at bonn dam so far. About 100 lions have been seen to eat 616 springers.
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[BorntoFish01]

[quote phutch30]If as I hope it is late I have no problem with them screaming up the main river into ID.
1. It will get them to us on time
and
2. It will reduce the number caught in the lowere/mid river

A large % of the Columbia run is supported by upriver fish. Ive always felt the lower river got an disproportionately large level of the catch. So I wouldnt be too upset if they blew through to ID.

I dont think we are going to see the 98,000 chinook predicted though.[/quote]

I'm with you on that note p30........and I'd like to see the Feds and states take more aggressive actions against the sea lions killing salmon and sturgeon below Bonneville Dam....translations = kill a bunch of those fat bastards.
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[Got_Bait]

This is definately a later run. But you can usually bet your boots that they over-forcasted too.

What is the sea lion population like above Bonneville Dam?

Anywhere from 25-33% of the Idaho chinook that cross Bonneville Dam disapear between Bonneville and Lower Granite. That doesn't even count what gets plucked out below Bonneville.

Washington and Oregon definately do get a disproportionately large share of Idaho's run. Do some math and see what the returns at LG (and the ID sportsman's harvest quotas) would be if 1/4 or 1/3 of the return didn't get annhilated in the Lower Columbia.

I say blast them on through. Washington and Oregon get a fall run that makes our spring run look like a joke.
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[phutch30]

Sea lions occasionaly go through the locks at Bonn, but rare.

within that 30% of missing fish, you have to factor in the fish removed from the run related to recreational fishing, tribal fishing, "natural" mortality and the fact that spring chinook have one of the highest straying rates in anadromouse fish ie they end up in the wrong river system. So in reality the difference is about right.
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[wormsinker]

im with everybody else hurry and get to idaho im chompin at the bit.
Oh ya i hate those sea lions as well, they need to do somthin about them
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[STEELHEADKID]

I invested a rather large chunk of my tax return on a custom top of the line salmon fishing stick so they better show up! I, like everybody else is hoping they are just late. If they are a no show I've got a little tide water honey hole that produces a king just about every cast but its up in AK. Hopefully I don't have to start saving up!
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[phutch30]

361 adults over Bonn yesterday lets hope its the point of the spear of a slug of them.
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[Got_Bait]

[#0000ff]Let me start by pointing out that the lion's share of that 1/4-1/3 that disappears, does so between Bonneville and McNary. Basically 100% (or more) of the fish that make it to Ice Harbor and up crossing Lower Granite. [/#0000ff]
[#0000ff][/#0000ff]
[#0000ff]Next, I will adress this comment 1 piece at a time[/#0000ff]:

" you have to factor in the fish removed from the run related to recreational fishing," [#0000ff]- that's exactly what I am saying: when IDFG is counting every "wild" fish we C&R, and closing our season based on estimated "incedental take" of federally listed wild fish, why should Oregon and Washington get a recreational fishery on Idaho-bound chinook?[/#0000ff]

tribal fishing, [#0000ff]- can't say I agree with OR and WA tribes gill netting Idaho chinook in the lower Columbia either, but to be PC I will largely leave this alone.[/#0000ff]

"natural" mortality [#0000ff]- I have a hard time beleiving that adult chinook die in the rivers on their return migration.[/#0000ff]

and the fact that spring chinook have one of the highest straying rates in anadromouse fish ie they end up in the wrong river system. [#0000ff]- Interesting information. I ran a quick check. In 2010, of 9,644 Lower Granite-bound chinook that crossed McNary Dam: 32 of them (0.3%) crossed Priest Rapids Dam (their first ladder on the Mid-Columbia), and 9,136 (94.7%) of them crossed Ice Harbor. The 32 was more than I expectected to see, but a pretty small share of the run made the wrong turn at the Columbia-Snake confluence. . .[/#0000ff]
[#0000ff][/#0000ff]
[#0000ff]Nothing against you phutch, I'm just frustrated that our seasons are reduced so that WA and OR anglers can waylay a large chunk of the fish that we paid for. . . epecially after they have survived and completed the most difficult part of their life-cycle.[/#0000ff]
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[phutch30]

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[phutch30]

Not arguing. I was just saying thats where the missing fish go.

Lets face it the indians where here before us. Everything we did basically screwed them. In reality they could have a much higher precentage of the fish.

I dont know why the lower river states get such a high percentage, but most years about 50% of the run is upper and 50% lower. Changes from year to year.

When I say mortality im including all mortality. You would be surprised how many die. This is pretty stressful for the fish.

When i said natural mortality Im including anything that kills a fish other than like gillnets or rec fishing. Probably 10% up to 15% of adults die prior to reaching spawning grounds. Its a pretty stressful process. On a cold water year like this morts would be low but if the water in the reservoirs warms up then they can drop pretty fast especially if conditions arnt good for climbing the ladders.
Under good conditions catch and release causes about 8% mortality (within24 hours). Factor in that these fish still have another 600+ miles to swim and we dont really know what additional post release mortalty really is.

The straying rate varies from year to year and has to be factored in for the whole system. We arnt talking thousands of fish but its addative to everything else. At times 10% of a run can be made up of stray fish. Some studies indicate that hatchery fish have a statistically higher stray rate than wild fish.


Heres a kicker. WA and OR were nice enough to extend the upriver fishery ( above bonn Dam) cause thier people didnt catch enough of the lower river quota. Its now open to May1. Good news is there appears to be a very large number of salmon staging in the river below Bonn Dam. We'll see
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[mikkfin80]

[cool] Saw my first chinook of the season on the fish cam today! Numbers are starting to pick up a bit. Hope they make it up the upper salmon in good numbers so we can have a season!
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[wormsinker]

hopefully they start showin up by the thousands. Already got my pole hooked up. Hurry and get here please!!!!!
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[LSR83]

Get ready guys weather is changing and the fish are going to start screaming up the river.
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[chrome_junky]

Its looking a little better guys. just over a thousand fish over bonneville today lets hope buy next week we are seeing some days when there are 9000 fish crossing
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