02-15-2013, 02:40 AM
Thank you for posting this! I have been doing the same thing today - I spent 2 hours emailing the representatives - but I need to do more. We HAVE to make sure this doesn't go! Here's an article written by Ryan Hatfield, editor of Elk Hunter and Western Hunter Magazines that was written last time Idaho F&G got such a stupid idea:
Idaho Set to Adopt Bonus Points?
The Gem State could learn from Wyoming’s example and other states’ mistakes
[i]“Hey, Jim, did you hear Idaho is going to bonus points? You better hurry up and get in on the ground floor. Before you know it, point creep will have those max points up over 20, like it’s getting in Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. I’m calling all my friends to let them know.”
“Yeah, I heard about that. You don’t want to get behind, that’s for sure. I’ve also
decided to put my wife and all my kids in, too. They haven’t applied before – hell,
Billy and Annie don’t even hunt yet - but they may want to someday. Can’t take
that chance, ya know. Once you’re behind, you’re pretty much out of it. “I’m also going to put my 70-year-old mother in, even though she doesn’t hunt, because ten years down the line, I can put in with her after I’ve already drawn the
previous year. Then I can just steal half her points when they average them. She’ll
have to eat the tag that could have gone to a hunter who was really hoping to draw, of course, but at least I’ll get another hunt five years sooner! It’s all in knowing how to play the game. A guy’s gotta do what a
guy’s gotta do.”
“Yeah, I know it. We generally only put in every once in awhile depending on the
year and our finances, but that’s gonna change now. There’s no way you can afford to miss a year now.”
Heads or tails. Flip that coin. We’ve all taken math class and heard the question.“ If you flipped a coin 50 times and it came up heads 40 times, what are the odds it will come up heads on the next flip?” Well, we all know it’s 50/50 even though our instinct might be to say it’s 80/20. With Idaho’s drawing odds, hunters need to separate perception from reality, forget the past, and understand simple odds.
Most people who apply in Idaho have the perception that they never draw anything. True, some do really seem to have that bad of luck, but the truth is that those permits are generally hard to draw and their odds are just a reflection of that. The reality, however, is that past draw success means absolutely nothing about odds of drawing the next year. It’s just a function of simple math.
Idaho currently still has some of the best odds of drawing a permit of any sort,
particularly for residents. If and when a point system is put in, that will change.
Right now, there are many decent elk permits that can be drawn with 1 in 3 to 1
in 10 odds. Same for deer. Come to think of it, same for some sheep, moose, and
goat permits.
The problem with committing to a bonus points system is that it goes and
commits other people to it, too. People who are lackadaisical about applying will
suddenly become obligated and motivated to keep putting in. People who had only put in for themselves will suddenly begin putting in family members (some
of whom will hunt and some of whom won’t.) Drawing odds across the state
will get considerably worse for everyone – especially guys like you and me who
already put in and legitimately want that tag. A permit that has 1 in 10 odds now
could skyrocket to easily double that amount, or worse.
“Well, I don’t care. At least this way, I’ll draw a permit, unlike the last ten years.” Yep. You will. Unfortunately, you’ll draw it half as often (on average) as you would have before.
Of all the Western states, Wyoming probably has the best system. Residents have no points. Those who are serious about hunting and really want the permits generally put in, and over time will draw those permits. However, nonresidents DO have points, and when you think about it, it makes sense. Nonresidents will generally have a significant amount of time and money wrapped up into a trip once that tag is drawn, and those people generally will be legitimate hunters who would already have put in. Lack of proximity and simplicity keep down the numbers of nonresidents who would apply that aren’t serious about drawing a tag. It’s the best of both worlds. Residents don’t have to worry about applicant numbers jumping through the roof, and nonresidents can sit and gather points toward that once every - few-years trip they look forward to. It also gives nonresidents the feeling that they at least “got something” for having to buy that darn license in order to apply; they don’t leave feeling empty-handed.
The fact is that these points systems are eventually going to backfire in some states. Point creep keeps pushing those numbers higher and higher, to the point that many tags formerly reasonable to draw are now becoming de facto once-in a- lifetime permits. This simply would not be happening if there wasn’t an incentive to keep the average casual hunter applying.
A few months ago, the Idaho legislature passed a bill allowing bonus points to be
implemented. Let’s make it clear; this does not mean that it will happen. It simply has allowed it to be implemented if and when the Commissioners and general public decide they want it to be implemented. For those who currently put in and want to keep drawing odds as reasonable as they currently are, let’s all hope that it never goes any further than that.[/i]
As hunters - we need to do EVERYTHING in our power to stop this. Activism is the only solution to this problem - and we need to act now!
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Idaho Set to Adopt Bonus Points?
The Gem State could learn from Wyoming’s example and other states’ mistakes
[i]“Hey, Jim, did you hear Idaho is going to bonus points? You better hurry up and get in on the ground floor. Before you know it, point creep will have those max points up over 20, like it’s getting in Arizona, Utah, and Colorado. I’m calling all my friends to let them know.”
“Yeah, I heard about that. You don’t want to get behind, that’s for sure. I’ve also
decided to put my wife and all my kids in, too. They haven’t applied before – hell,
Billy and Annie don’t even hunt yet - but they may want to someday. Can’t take
that chance, ya know. Once you’re behind, you’re pretty much out of it. “I’m also going to put my 70-year-old mother in, even though she doesn’t hunt, because ten years down the line, I can put in with her after I’ve already drawn the
previous year. Then I can just steal half her points when they average them. She’ll
have to eat the tag that could have gone to a hunter who was really hoping to draw, of course, but at least I’ll get another hunt five years sooner! It’s all in knowing how to play the game. A guy’s gotta do what a
guy’s gotta do.”
“Yeah, I know it. We generally only put in every once in awhile depending on the
year and our finances, but that’s gonna change now. There’s no way you can afford to miss a year now.”
Heads or tails. Flip that coin. We’ve all taken math class and heard the question.“ If you flipped a coin 50 times and it came up heads 40 times, what are the odds it will come up heads on the next flip?” Well, we all know it’s 50/50 even though our instinct might be to say it’s 80/20. With Idaho’s drawing odds, hunters need to separate perception from reality, forget the past, and understand simple odds.
Most people who apply in Idaho have the perception that they never draw anything. True, some do really seem to have that bad of luck, but the truth is that those permits are generally hard to draw and their odds are just a reflection of that. The reality, however, is that past draw success means absolutely nothing about odds of drawing the next year. It’s just a function of simple math.
Idaho currently still has some of the best odds of drawing a permit of any sort,
particularly for residents. If and when a point system is put in, that will change.
Right now, there are many decent elk permits that can be drawn with 1 in 3 to 1
in 10 odds. Same for deer. Come to think of it, same for some sheep, moose, and
goat permits.
The problem with committing to a bonus points system is that it goes and
commits other people to it, too. People who are lackadaisical about applying will
suddenly become obligated and motivated to keep putting in. People who had only put in for themselves will suddenly begin putting in family members (some
of whom will hunt and some of whom won’t.) Drawing odds across the state
will get considerably worse for everyone – especially guys like you and me who
already put in and legitimately want that tag. A permit that has 1 in 10 odds now
could skyrocket to easily double that amount, or worse.
“Well, I don’t care. At least this way, I’ll draw a permit, unlike the last ten years.” Yep. You will. Unfortunately, you’ll draw it half as often (on average) as you would have before.
Of all the Western states, Wyoming probably has the best system. Residents have no points. Those who are serious about hunting and really want the permits generally put in, and over time will draw those permits. However, nonresidents DO have points, and when you think about it, it makes sense. Nonresidents will generally have a significant amount of time and money wrapped up into a trip once that tag is drawn, and those people generally will be legitimate hunters who would already have put in. Lack of proximity and simplicity keep down the numbers of nonresidents who would apply that aren’t serious about drawing a tag. It’s the best of both worlds. Residents don’t have to worry about applicant numbers jumping through the roof, and nonresidents can sit and gather points toward that once every - few-years trip they look forward to. It also gives nonresidents the feeling that they at least “got something” for having to buy that darn license in order to apply; they don’t leave feeling empty-handed.
The fact is that these points systems are eventually going to backfire in some states. Point creep keeps pushing those numbers higher and higher, to the point that many tags formerly reasonable to draw are now becoming de facto once-in a- lifetime permits. This simply would not be happening if there wasn’t an incentive to keep the average casual hunter applying.
A few months ago, the Idaho legislature passed a bill allowing bonus points to be
implemented. Let’s make it clear; this does not mean that it will happen. It simply has allowed it to be implemented if and when the Commissioners and general public decide they want it to be implemented. For those who currently put in and want to keep drawing odds as reasonable as they currently are, let’s all hope that it never goes any further than that.[/i]
As hunters - we need to do EVERYTHING in our power to stop this. Activism is the only solution to this problem - and we need to act now!
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